Does the above proposition holds good? Let us examine the hypothesis with some of the parameters.
Search engine depends on the internet penetration and not on the physical reach. So any turmoil in US, Europe or in emerging markets could easily be reflected to the business development (export and import segment) in other parts of the world. Has it been the case so far?
Data analysts and search engine experts could have better say in this regard. What I want to say is that, like Tsunami, where birds and animals are less affected predicting the danger of the wave, search engine movements (like ad growths, click growths, business verticals movements) could be a way perhaps before any slowdown or recession. Region or continental based data and analysis thereafter would shed some light in this aspect.
In addition, if we are able to segregate the data according to the verticals like BFSI, FMCG, Automobiles etc., a better result is expected accordingly.
US banking and financial system is the first to receive the virus of financial catastrophe. So the mortgage payments, home buying/selling rate, credit growth and score and therefore consolidation through web media would be the handy tool in building a proper data modeling of the crisis and a solution in advance therefore.
A few relationships:
1. A rise in online ad growth might be reflector of cost cutting on part of the companies, a credit crunch situation.
2. A business movement from the frontline sector (like BFSI) to relatively defensive one like pharma, FMGC entails sentiments are defensive.
3. Higher level of debt consolidation might be an indication of higher leveraging positions.